While it's natural to feel uneasy when short-term risks such as wildfires or weak corporate earnings cast a shadow over the financial markets or local skylines, history reminds us that these risks will pass with time. Financial shocks are a natural part of being a long-term investor, which is why it is important to build a portfolio that prioritizes resiliency.
We are taking a break from our regularly scheduled reflection to begin our Labor Day weekend by closing laptops, turning off Zoom, and taking a moment to reflect on the hard work of our team.
Like the first in a line of dominos, public investment in large-scale scientific endeavors can start a chain reaction of innovation that benefits economic growth and sustainable development in unforeseeable and beneficial ways.
The recent US credit downgrade by Fitch Ratings is less about financial fundamentals, and more about political will and the process of level-headed governance.
Home prices have remained surprisingly resilient and have only declined incrementally from their record highs in spring 2022 despite mortgage rates having doubled over a similar timeline.
Q2 2023 Market Commentary
The challenge of prediction is not in determining what will happen, but rather when it will happen.
As we move into summer, we recommend ignoring the short-term noise of Fed meetings and interest rates. Opting instead to embrace new routines, longer summer days, and a break from the school year, knowing that a portfolio with a long-term strategy will remain resilient through any ups and downs.
We recognize that the debt ceiling is a negotiation, and classic public negotiation tactics should be expected. While headlines can make it tough to find reasons to be optimistic, it’s helpful to look to the historical patterns of similar negotiations to put current events into context.
It is human nature to assume the present landscape will continue unchanged. This straight-line thinking can impede our ability to make decisions about a future that is constantly in flux.
Businesses and consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to get new loans, and the impacts of a full-fledged “credit crunch” are becoming visible.
Q1 2023 Market Commentary
It is a collaboration with our clients that spans technical details, emotional needs, and the irrational and unexpected elements of life goals that makes possible the process of determining the path forward.
There are key lessons to highlight as we unravel Silicon Valley Bank's problems and subsequent relief efforts, including the importance of diversification at all levels and the speed of response to financial crises.
ESG is not a cure-all for the environmental or social challenges we collectively face. It can, however, serve as a valuable tool for investors to reduce specific portfolio risks and align their investments with a changing world.
Markets are starting this year from more reasonable valuations and with bonds yielding stronger income than prior years. This balance should benefit patient investors and diversified portfolios as they navigate short-term storms and begin rebuilding portfolio values.
The economic and market landscape still includes plenty of uncertainty, but it is a welcome sight to see portfolios rebuild some value early in the year.
Financial markets can have phases of directionless wandering as investors await more information. We may be in one of those moments right now.
Q4 2022 Market Commentary
Financial markets, much like our weather, are usually mild and uneventful. What sticks in people’s minds, however, are the extreme events.
As inflation emerges from a long hibernation, the impact on consumers is acute. It's important to acknowledge that inflation has been a normal and recurring part of economic growth throughout history - and can have some silver linings.
Market movements can feel chaotic over the short term, and the noise of daily market headlines can make investors question whether the historical patterns of growth will continue to hold true.
While financial markets may breathe a sigh of relief following midterm election results, the present reality is that ongoing concerns about global recession, high inflation, and tighter central bank policies could limit the enthusiasm of any post-election rally.