January brings the annual tradition of envisioning the year ahead. In financial markets, this means attempting to predict what can not be controlled.
Visited by three spirits representing the arc of his past, present, and future, Scrooge was given the gift of perspective. It is a tale that holds valuable lessons for investors.
While the emergence of the Omicron variant is troubling as a public health issue, it is familiar territory for the economy. As we face new variants and risks, we believe a long-term strategy will continue to serve our clients well.
Q3 2021 Market Commentary
Investor sentiment is slowly shifting from the optimism of early-2021 when investors believed ‘when this pandemic is over, things will be better,’ to a more pragmatic outlook that acknowledges the pandemic is not over and may linger.
We often take for granted how products arrive at our doorsteps or on store shelves. The pandemic has caused a snarled supply chain, and the resulting scarcity is driving up product prices.
Transitory disruptions to the global supply chain persist and the impact on long-term valuations grow as investors question how companies will recover and protect their profits against future disruptions.
The prevailing story in the markets over the past year has been economic recovery, pandemic progress, and Fed support. The story has supported price growth but hinges on a “just right” middle path to keep those three pillars in balance.
The Olympics reliably provide great drama. Whether it’s enough to justify the cognitive dissonance of hammering forward with the Games amid a health crisis is another question
Q2 2021 Market Commentary
Global economic activity has picked up over the last three months, reflecting pent-up demand but still faces several road bumps as the pace of recovery varies between nations.
In a showing of bipartisan support, the US Senate voted for the Innovation and Competition Act. It provides widespread support for research and development in technology and science, representing a long-term view that will hopefully drive needed patterns of change.
Tax rates and mortgage rates are both on the rise. For some investors, these shifts may indicate negative trends for market prices and economic growth. If we zoom out for perspective, history tells us that these increases may not be such a bad thing.
Many industries have been unprepared for rapid surges in demand caused by the pandemic. Notably, the lumber and microprocessor industries find themselves rationing scarce quantities through higher prices.
One method of gaining perspective when faced with overwhelming data is to zoom out and understand how recent activity fits into a larger pattern. By doing this, we can gain a better understanding of the ‘relative progress’ during the pandemic versus the ‘absolute progress’ over a longer timeframe.
Cryptocurrency is an evolution of money that currently hinges on its ability to solidify widespread trust in its functionality as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Trading platforms like Coinbase may add legitimacy and security to ownership of cryptocurrency.
Q1 2021 Market Commentary
In the current pattern of growth, interest rates are likely to be volatile while both production and employment are recovering, and equity prices are likely to behave in kind.