Q1 2021 Market Commentary
In the current pattern of growth, interest rates are likely to be volatile while both production and employment are recovering, and equity prices are likely to behave in kind.
Traffic on the Suez Canal is fully halted in both directions after the Ever Given became lodged in the embankment. Fascinating as it is, the bottleneck and the slowdown that it’s caused will ultimately be a short-term detour in the long-term trajectory of global trade.
We are now probably getting into the second act of the pandemic, and can’t yet see clearly the possible twists in the plot that will set us down in an entirely new landscape. Like a Shakespearean character, though, we continue to accommodate to circumstance.
Covid-19 could shift from a pandemic disease to an endemic one. Businesses understand this shift and new and potentially lucrative Covid-19 business lines are quickly emerging.
Optimism in the markets is being driven by innovation, ultra-low interest rates, and the promise of financial and public health support from the government. Are we running ahead of reality?
Vaccine rollout and increased spending on green infrastructure may make 2021 a much more positive year economically than 2020. Whether or not stock prices have further room to rise in the near term, is yet to be determined.
The growing role of technology in recent decades has expanded a new frontier of risk for companies and individuals alike: cybersecurity. Ironically, we refer to an invasive computer code as a virus.
All decision-making, in investing and in life, is made with partial knowledge. It is important to find the right balance of potential and security so that we can have peace of mind in the moment.
Environmental concerns have led many people to embrace electric vehicles. Demand is driving innovation and widespread adoption is sparking growth in new industries, especially around the reuse and recycling of batteries.
The vaccine announcements provide hope for the resumption of robust economic activity, but the market and the country will need to navigate a hard winter before the distribution process is functionally underway.