Olympic Trials & Tribulations
The Olympics reliably provide great drama. Whether it’s enough to justify the cognitive dissonance of hammering forward with the Games amid a health crisis is another question
Cycles of Recovery
Q2 2021 Market Commentary
Global economic activity has picked up over the last three months, reflecting pent-up demand but still faces several road bumps as the pace of recovery varies between nations.
Echoes of Past Excess
Investors face the question of whether high equity prices are a sign of speculative excess or a reasonable conclusion based on pandemic-altered demand and a recovering economy.
Innovation Begins with Investment
In a showing of bipartisan support, the US Senate voted for the Innovation and Competition Act. It provides widespread support for research and development in technology and science, representing a long-term view that will hopefully drive needed patterns of change.
Help Wanted
The national employment headline numbers don’t tell the full story of a fraught employment landscape, with ‘help wanted’ signs outpacing job applications in recent weeks.
Goodbye Masks, Hello Volatility
The economy has recovered substantially from the lows of last year, but this week offered reminders that there are risks to market resiliency beyond the pandemic.
History as Context
Tax rates and mortgage rates are both on the rise. For some investors, these shifts may indicate negative trends for market prices and economic growth. If we zoom out for perspective, history tells us that these increases may not be such a bad thing.
Pinch Points
Many industries have been unprepared for rapid surges in demand caused by the pandemic. Notably, the lumber and microprocessor industries find themselves rationing scarce quantities through higher prices.
A Dash of Perspective
One method of gaining perspective when faced with overwhelming data is to zoom out and understand how recent activity fits into a larger pattern. By doing this, we can gain a better understanding of the ‘relative progress’ during the pandemic versus the ‘absolute progress’ over a longer timeframe.
Money, Cryptocurrency, and the Value of Trust
Cryptocurrency is an evolution of money that currently hinges on its ability to solidify widespread trust in its functionality as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Trading platforms like Coinbase may add legitimacy and security to ownership of cryptocurrency.
The Impact of Interest Rates on Everything
Q1 2021 Market Commentary
In the current pattern of growth, interest rates are likely to be volatile while both production and employment are recovering, and equity prices are likely to behave in kind.
Bottleneck at the Canal
Traffic on the Suez Canal is fully halted in both directions after the Ever Given became lodged in the embankment. Fascinating as it is, the bottleneck and the slowdown that it’s caused will ultimately be a short-term detour in the long-term trajectory of global trade.
Another Block in the Chain
The potential for blockchain as a technology is easy to recognize. Much harder to know at this point is how that potential will be applied.
When Bad News is Good News
Rising interest rates are a natural process in the re-opening of the economy and show that the market relationship between stocks and bonds is normalizing.
The Upside of Inflation
Inflation and the upward trajectory for interest rates are a healthy sign for our shared economy and the long-term investor.
A Song of Ice and Fire
Complex systems like energy grids or financial markets aren’t perfect, but they are designed to be resilient. When catastrophes happen, resiliency matters more than perfection.
Unintended Opportunities
Covid-19 could shift from a pandemic disease to an endemic one. Businesses understand this shift and new and potentially lucrative Covid-19 business lines are quickly emerging.
Go, Go, GameStop?
The market gyrations caused by the bizarre and meteoric rise of GameStop stock illustrates the sharp contrast between short-term trading and long-term investing.
The Arc of Change
The arc of change bends towards justice but it isn't guaranteed. It requires hard work and tireless effort stretching across generations.
Points of Consistency
Q4 2020 Market Commentary
As we enter 2021, we expect to encounter potholes as well as progress, with an uneven path to global economic recovery over at least another year or two.