Brian Kozel

About Brian Kozel

Brian Kozel, CFP® is Partner and Lead Advisor at North Berkeley Wealth Management.

Familiar Unknowns

By |2021-12-03T16:02:00-08:00December 3rd, 2021|

While the emergence of the Omicron variant is troubling as a public health issue, it is familiar territory for the economy. As we face new variants and risks, we believe a long-term strategy will continue to serve our clients well.

Noisy Normalization

By |2021-10-15T15:27:57-07:00October 1st, 2021|

Q3 2021 Market Commentary
Investor sentiment is slowly shifting from the optimism of early-2021 when investors believed ‘when this pandemic is over, things will be better,’ to a more pragmatic outlook that acknowledges the pandemic is not over and may linger.

The Snarled Supply Chain

By |2021-10-01T15:42:24-07:00September 17th, 2021|

We often take for granted how products arrive at our doorsteps or on store shelves. The pandemic has caused a snarled supply chain, and the resulting scarcity is driving up product prices.

Lessons from Fukushima

By |2021-09-17T14:22:35-07:00September 3rd, 2021|

Transitory disruptions to the global supply chain persist and the impact on long-term valuations grow as investors question how companies will recover and protect their profits against future disruptions.

The Callous Market

By |2021-09-07T13:56:04-07:00August 20th, 2021|

History offers many examples of war and tragedy that can be used to analyze how markets make sense of the potential financial impacts during a crisis.

Mixed Messages

By |2021-08-20T14:45:52-07:00August 6th, 2021|

The prevailing story in the markets over the past year has been economic recovery, pandemic progress, and Fed support. The story has supported price growth but hinges on a “just right” middle path to keep those three pillars in balance.

Olympic Trials & Tribulations

By |2021-08-06T13:01:04-07:00July 23rd, 2021|

The Olympics reliably provide great drama. Whether it’s enough to justify the cognitive dissonance of hammering forward with the Games amid a health crisis is another question

Cycles of Recovery

By |2021-07-26T11:34:54-07:00July 9th, 2021|

Q2 2021 Market Commentary
Global economic activity has picked up over the last three months, reflecting pent-up demand but still faces several road bumps as the pace of recovery varies between nations.

Echoes of Past Excess

By |2021-07-09T15:10:42-07:00June 25th, 2021|

Investors face the question of whether high equity prices are a sign of speculative excess or a reasonable conclusion based on pandemic-altered demand and a recovering economy.

Innovation Begins with Investment

By |2021-06-25T13:03:39-07:00June 11th, 2021|

In a showing of bipartisan support, the US Senate voted for the Innovation and Competition Act. It provides widespread support for research and development in technology and science, representing a long-term view that will hopefully drive needed patterns of change.

Help Wanted

By |2021-06-04T16:25:54-07:00May 21st, 2021|

The national employment headline numbers don’t tell the full story of a fraught employment landscape, with ‘help wanted’ signs outpacing job applications in recent weeks.

History as Context

By |2021-05-14T14:07:41-07:00May 7th, 2021|

Tax rates and mortgage rates are both on the rise. For some investors, these shifts may indicate negative trends for market prices and economic growth. If we zoom out for perspective, history tells us that these increases may not be such a bad thing.

Pinch Points

By |2021-05-14T14:08:16-07:00April 30th, 2021|

Many industries have been unprepared for rapid surges in demand caused by the pandemic. Notably, the lumber and microprocessor industries find themselves rationing scarce quantities through higher prices.

A Dash of Perspective

By |2021-05-07T13:43:12-07:00April 23rd, 2021|

One method of gaining perspective when faced with overwhelming data is to zoom out and understand how recent activity fits into a larger pattern. By doing this, we can gain a better understanding of the ‘relative progress’ during the pandemic versus the ‘absolute progress’ over a longer timeframe.

Money, Cryptocurrency, and the Value of Trust

By |2021-04-30T15:21:48-07:00April 16th, 2021|

Cryptocurrency is an evolution of money that currently hinges on its ability to solidify widespread trust in its functionality as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Trading platforms like Coinbase may add legitimacy and security to ownership of cryptocurrency.

Bottleneck at the Canal

By |2021-03-31T11:07:23-07:00March 26th, 2021|

Traffic on the Suez Canal is fully halted in both directions after the Ever Given became lodged in the embankment. Fascinating as it is, the bottleneck and the slowdown that it’s caused will ultimately be a short-term detour in the long-term trajectory of global trade.