Brian Kozel

About Brian Kozel

Brian Kozel, CFP® is Partner and Lead Advisor at North Berkeley Wealth Management.

Sell In May and Go Away?

By |2024-06-07T13:03:56-07:00June 7th, 2024|

Even though stocks haven’t traditionally done as well from May through October, they still tend to go up, suggesting that staying fully invested has been more reliable than attempting to time the market. 

Inflation Fatigue

By |2024-05-29T14:00:40-07:00May 10th, 2024|

While overall spending remains strong, early cracks are emerging, suggesting that consumers are feeling the fatigue after four years of inflation pressures.

Catastrophe, Resilience, and Growth

By |2024-04-05T14:08:06-07:00April 5th, 2024|

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, while devastating, did not paralyze the nation's economy; similarly, a diversified portfolio is structured to absorb volatility without jeopardizing overall performance.

Artificial Intelligence, Real Companies

By |2024-03-08T14:26:18-08:00March 8th, 2024|

AI has the potential to transform industries and reshape the way we live and work. It also carries significant risks for specific professions and our broader social fabric, presenting challenges for policymakers and regulators.

A New Season Begins

By |2024-02-20T10:33:39-08:00February 16th, 2024|

When building your portfolio and saving for retirement, hitting singles and doubles is the safer, lower-risk route. It's the singles and doubles that win the game. Home runs are exciting, but good defense and strong pitching carry teams deep into the post season.

Companies Get Their Quarterly Report Card

By |2024-02-02T13:17:35-08:00February 2nd, 2024|

Earnings reports include three key financial statements: the balance sheet, the income statement, and the cash flow statement. When a company announces its quarterly results, investors immediately compare the actual results to what financial industry analysts had estimated.

Defying Expectations, Shifting Narratives

By |2024-01-26T13:37:17-08:00January 5th, 2024|

The strong rally over the final two months of 2023 has led to the question of whether potential 2024 price gains may have been pulled forward. To some extent, we would say yes. Stock valuations aren’t unreasonable given where interest rates are, but they are pricing in a strong probability of several interest rate cuts in 2024.

What We Can Learn From the Price of Cardboard

By |2024-01-26T13:38:27-08:00December 15th, 2023|

History indicates that when cardboard prices jump higher, the economy is revving up. Some analysts have said that it is too soon to tell whether price increases will persist or if they are a one-time adjustment in a retail market still reeling from the unique circumstances of the pandemic.

Charlie Munger: Lessons from Warren Buffett’s Right Hand Man

By |2024-01-26T13:39:40-08:00December 1st, 2023|

Charlie Munger was an inspiration to countless investors - including members of our team here at North Berkeley. His emphasis on acquiring a diverse range of mental models, understanding the fundamental nature of business, and maintaining a long-term perspective has become gospel for many in the financial world. Rest in Peace Charlie Munger.

Markets Take the Long View

By |2023-11-20T09:47:47-08:00November 3rd, 2023|

Prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks, and investors are closely watching the headlines from the Fed regarding US interest rate policy as well as further developments in the Middle East.  

The Reality of a ‘Soft Landing’

By |2023-11-10T15:57:07-08:00October 6th, 2023|

Q3 2023 Market Commentary
With the economy remaining stronger than expected and the Fed signaling one more rate hike in 2023, investors are being forced to recalibrate their expectations for both stock and bond valuations.

Smoky Skies

By |2023-11-10T15:58:33-08:00September 22nd, 2023|

While it's natural to feel uneasy when short-term risks such as wildfires or weak corporate earnings cast a shadow over the financial markets or local skylines, history reminds us that these risks will pass with time. Financial shocks are a natural part of being a long-term investor, which is why it is important to build a portfolio that prioritizes resiliency.

Space and Spinoff Innovation

By |2023-11-10T16:00:57-08:00August 25th, 2023|

Like the first in a line of dominos, public investment in large-scale scientific endeavors can start a chain reaction of innovation that benefits economic growth and sustainable development in unforeseeable and beneficial ways.

Downgrade Déjà Vu

By |2023-08-21T09:24:21-07:00August 4th, 2023|

The recent US credit downgrade by Fitch Ratings is less about financial fundamentals, and more about political will and the process of level-headed governance.

Predicting the Past

By |2023-10-06T09:58:39-07:00June 30th, 2023|

Q2 2023 Market Commentary
The challenge of prediction is not in determining what will happen, but rather when it will happen.

School’s Out for Summer

By |2023-07-21T15:10:22-07:00June 9th, 2023|

As we move into summer, we recommend ignoring the short-term noise of Fed meetings and interest rates. Opting instead to embrace new routines, longer summer days, and a break from the school year, knowing that a portfolio with a long-term strategy will remain resilient through any ups and downs.

Debt Ceiling Déjà Vu

By |2023-06-09T13:22:35-07:00May 26th, 2023|

We recognize that the debt ceiling is a negotiation, and classic public negotiation tactics should be expected. While headlines can make it tough to find reasons to be optimistic, it’s helpful to look to the historical patterns of similar negotiations to put current events into context.

Straight-Line Thinking

By |2023-05-12T15:47:08-07:00April 28th, 2023|

It is human nature to assume the present landscape will continue unchanged. This straight-line thinking can impede our ability to make decisions about a future that is constantly in flux.

When Credit Gets Crunched

By |2023-05-05T16:24:30-07:00April 21st, 2023|

Businesses and consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to get new loans, and the impacts of a full-fledged “credit crunch” are becoming visible.